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Our pioneering Crude by Rail (CBR) Forecast offers a tailored American and Canadian CBR volume analysis through 2018. Our industry experience allows us to distill varying and rapidly changing information into the first report of its kind — a detailed five-year North American CBR forecast. This forecast establishes a benchmark projection, as crude by rail becomes the rolling pipeline to the east and west coast refineries from the Bakken. With customized reporting available, the CBR Forecast provides unique insights for financial institutions, the oil industry, and supporting transportation and logistics industries.
Using a proprietary analysis of the competing supply and logistical options in the United States and Canada, our CBR Forecast assesses the impact of the options on every stage of the unconventional oil supply chain. We predict base case, high and low models of future CBR volume by evaluating eleven key interrelated variables. These intricate forecasts are based on variations, including future crude production volume, the location, timing and capacity of new pipelines, available transloading capacity, and domestic and foreign supply competition.
The models forecast a 12-15% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) through 2018 for Bakken CBR, and a 40-50% CAGR for Western Canadian CBR through 2017. The sample graph below shows one view of the forecasted Bakken CBR volume:
Customized analyses are available to hone in on specific client requirements, including the tank car market, rail freight volumes, and risk assessment. Recognizing the fast-changing nature of the CBR industry, our CBR Forecast offers a quarterly subscription update that will account for changes in regulatory impacts, supply/demand, new infrastructure developments, advances in production, and market pricing trends.
The insights revealed in these forecasts impact a variety of energy industry sectors including oil production, transportation, rail car equipment, midstream marketing, and refining, as well as the related investment community.
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